Friday Notes, December 2, 2022
Dear Friends -
The United States Agency for International Development spends about $30 billion of U.S. taxpayers’ money on social, environmental, and economic development programs in 100 low- and middle-income countries. While that may seem like a lot of money, it’s less than 1 percent of the Federal budget, and even that doesn’t come in one lump sum. The vast majority of the resources are encumbered by Congressional directives. Appropriators in Congress mandate the amount of money to be directed to various regions and countries, reflecting the Agency’s role as the primary purveyor of “soft power” within U.S. foreign policy. And Congress focuses resources on specific sectors and programs, reflecting the power of Washington’s influence machinery (hello, advocates and lobbyists) as well as legislators’ preferences.
So the budget comes to the agency sliced into countries, diced into sectors (see the sectoral splits in the figure below, from a paper by Dan Runde). These allocations, which are made in a political context that is largely uninterested in empirical evidence, then leave the planners and program staff at USAID with the challenge of pasting the pieces together so that there is a reasonable match between what’s spent in a given country and what might achieve important development outcomes there.
You can see the puzzle to be solved. If someone on Capitol Hill is deciding where the money gets spent and on what sectors, and if those decisions are tied to a U.S.-centric agenda, what decisions is USAID actually making to support sovereign governments and civil society organizations around the world that are seeking meaningful progress? Fortunately, the agency is making decisions, and they’re important ones. USAID staff are designing sector-specific programs and choosing whom to entrust with the funds to carry out the work. For each of those types of decisions, USAID has the opportunity to be super-smart and super-strategic. The agency can combine knowledge of program effectiveness generated in many places with an appreciation for the importance of proximity.
Thanks to decades of research and evaluation across many sectors, and an increasing volume of high quality studies from investigators who have both subject-matter and contextual expertise, USAID program designers can focus resources with a lot of confidence about the likely results. Just look at the Development Evidence Portal at the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation to see what I mean. Evidence on intervention effectiveness (and cost-effectiveness!) is a click away, and it is highly applicable to the types of programs USAID funds. The systematic reviews that summarize lots of studies are particularly valuable. For both agency staff around the world and the many implementing organizations they work with, accessing and using high quality, mixed methods studies as the basis for program design has never been easier. And this agenda will surely be advanced with the arrival of Dean Karlan as Chief Economist.
And then there’s the matter of who ends up with the money to implement those programs. Thanks to a growing awareness that the highest impact work will be done by people who have deep knowledge of the context and long-term commitment to progress in their own countries, USAID can move away from contracting fly-in/fly-out implementation firms and toward longer-term support for in-country NGOs and other civil society organizations. This is at the heart of the agency’s localization commitments, described by Oxfam here. It’s not an easy agenda to pursue, but there are a host of practical reforms, like those proposed by Patrick Fine, that could make it possible.
In short: evidence plus localization, even in the face of a tight budget and persistent Congressional directives, will permit USAID to achieve more now than it has ever done before.
Lots of people are going wild over a new artificial intelligence-driven bot that generates text on the basis of whatever instruction you give it. So, while planning for next week’s event where USAID Administrator Samantha Power is speaking (and I’m doing introductory remarks), I thought I’d give it a whirl.
Here’s what I wrote as a prompt:
Write a speech for Administrator Samantha Power about how USAID is a learning organization that values local knowledge and rigorous evidence.
This is what the bot produced in less than two seconds:
Ladies and gentlemen,
I am honored to be here today to speak about the importance of USAID as a learning organization that values local knowledge and rigorous evidence. As the Administrator of USAID, I am proud to be a part of an organization that is committed to making a positive impact in the world by working with local partners to address the most pressing challenges facing communities around the globe.
One of the key ways that we do this is by valuing local knowledge and expertise. USAID recognizes that the people who are closest to the problems we are trying to solve are often the best equipped to find solutions. That is why we prioritize partnerships with local organizations and individuals who have deep insights into the challenges facing their communities.
Additionally, USAID is committed to using rigorous evidence to inform our decisions and drive our programming. We understand that the best way to achieve lasting change is to base our efforts on sound data and research. That is why we invest in evaluations and assessments that help us understand what is working, what is not, and how we can improve.
By combining local knowledge with rigorous evidence, USAID is able to design and implement programs that are both effective and sustainable. We are able to tailor our interventions to the unique needs of each community, and we are able to learn from our successes and failures in order to continuously improve.
USAID is a learning organization because we are always striving to do better. We are constantly seeking new and innovative ways to address the complex challenges facing the world today, and we are committed to learning from our experiences and adapting to changing circumstances.
In conclusion, USAID is a valuable partner for communities around the globe because we value local knowledge and rigorous evidence. By working together, we can create lasting change and make the world a better place for all. Thank you.
Not bad, eh? I think that bot has a future in the front office!
[Note: I updated this on Saturday, December 3, because I realized I had used an older version of the bot. This one is even better.]
You know those “no bad ideas” brainstorming sessions at work? I’m not much of a fan because, let’s face it, there are some really bad ideas and it’s possible to use up a lot of time and energy ginning them up with Sharpies and sticky notes. But, according to this article, I’m 100% wrong. Not only should we be encouraging any and all ideas, but we should implement a step-by-step process to generate at least 2,000 (!) of them so that, out of the bunch, we get one good one. I am not convinced, but I’m willing to give it a try. I’ll let you know how it goes.
Here’s a picture that’s worth a billion words.
A little late for Thanksgiving, but just on time for every day from here on out, we now have scientific proof that it’s a good idea to adopt an attitude of gratitude — assuming you want your colleagues to live a long life. According to the study, “Gratitude expressions improve teammates' cardiovascular stress responses,” when co-workers thanked colleagues before a high-stress task, those colleagues had reduced signs of physiologic stress (as measured by blood flow and other factors), compared to situations in which no gratitude was expressed. (The study is described in more detail here.) Thank you, scientists. We appreciate your contribution.
And for a little science that doesn’t quite do the trick: The New York Times offered us “Is It Better to Brush Your Teeth Before Breakfast or After?: It’s a Hotly Debated Question in Dentistry.” I read the lengthy article so you don’t have to. The bottom line: Lots of research. No one really knows. Do whatever you want.
Have a good weekend,
-Ruth